The ARM Macs are Coming!

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Okay, if you’re not a techie, you might be thinking that Macs will be getting arms. What’s next, legs? Is it here, the apocalypse? Judgement day?

No.

Well… probably not.

Apple won’t be putting arms on Macs. Just $400 wheels.

What we’re talking about is the processor. An ARM processor is different from what you’d typically find in your desktop or laptop computer. Usually, it’s an x86 or x64 processor from Intel or AMD. These are powerful processors, but they’re prone to using more energy than they may require for a given instruction. Then there’s ARM processors. These you’ll find in your iPhones, iPads, Apple TVs, and the like. They’re more energy efficient, have fewer parts, and they’re smaller, but lack the same power.

To really break down the differences, we’d have to get into assembly code, instruction sets, transistor counts, and hardware design. I’d have to pull out all the knowledge even my professor admitted I’d likely never need again. You likely don’t want that. So, to recap: Intel and AMD make fast processors, but the architecture is less energy efficient than the usually slower but far more efficient ARM processors.

Until recently, that is. Apple’s system on a chip processors, like the A13 Bionic, have been catching up to the processors put out by Intel. These processors could bypass Intel’s chips, at least for lower-end laptops. This means Apple could increase the power and battery life of their MacBooks, while also making them thinner and run cooler. Now that the power is catching up, it’s an easy win, right?

Not exactly.

The ARM Rumor

So let’s get into the likelihood of an ARM Mac before we discuss what it would mean for the platform. Ming-Chi Kuo is an analyst for TF Securities. He makes predictions about future Apple products based on knowledge of Apple’s supply chain. Notice that they’re ordering a lot of 11″ screens, large batteries, and brand new A14 ARM processors? That sounds like an iPad. See that an Apple chip supplier has a new 5mm design? Expect Apple to take advantage of it in their new chips.

So, using those methods, Ming-Chi Kuo states that we will likely have a new Mac with an ARM processor in the next 12 to 18 months. This new Mac will use an upgraded version of Apple’s latest processors, kind of like Apple does for their iPad. Because the iPad is larger and can disperse heat better, and because it has a larger battery, Apple can increase the clock speed on the chip, making it faster than its iPhone counterpart. This would go a step further with the new ARM Mac. Kuo believes a 5mm process and an upgraded version of Apple’s upcoming A14 chip will power this new Mac. The smaller process (Apple currently uses 7mm transistor spacing) will improve processor efficiency and speed. The A13 Bionic is head and shoulders above any equivalent processor on the Android side. It’s already powerful enough to power Macs. The new version will be even better suited for the task.

Why Wait?

This has been rumored for quite some time now. For months, even Intel has warned that Apple would release ARM Macs by 2021. The A13 chip is already powerful enough to handle many of the computing tasks of a Mac. Surely it could power a low-end Mac. Why wait? Apple needs to wait for software support, which can take considerably more time. Switching from Intel processors to ARM would change the instruction set at a base level. Apple would need to recompile their apps, fix comparability issues, and improve performance for the platform. That could take years. However, we may have already seen some evidence of this. By dropping 32 bit support for apps, Apple has set up macOS for the transition to the 64 bit-only ARM processors. It seems Apple has been preparing customers and third party developers for the switch since last year.

Benefits of an ARM Mac

The potential benefits of an ARM Mac are twofold. There are the benefits that consumers will see, and those that Apple will see. They may choose to pass some of those benefits on to you. By using ARM processors that Apple has designed themselves, they can dramatically reduce production costs. They won’t have to buy processors from Intel. They also won’t have to upgrade their devices on Intel’s increasingly slow and unreliable release schedule. Apple may pass these savings on to customers. The ARM versions of a Mac, likely a new MacBook Air, could cost less than it does now. It could bring the base price of a Mac to under $1,000.

Performance!

An ARM chip is generally less powerful than an x64 chip (Intel and AMD’s CPU options). However, Apple has made great improvements here. The new chips can perform as well as Intel’s low end laptop processors. That performance will come with drastically lower heat production and battery life consumption. This is because ARM processors use a smaller process, their transistors are smaller and closer together. The instruction sets are more basic. While it can limit performance, it drastically reduces electricity consumption and heat. The next A-series chip from Apple could finally surpase Intel’s low-end chips, giving the MacBook Air a speed boost.

Improved Designs

A MacBook that uses less power and creates less heat could be thinner and lighter than any MacBook that came before it. The machine wouldn’t need as large of a battery to still show significant battery life improvements. Furthermore, with less heat, Apple may be able to reduce fan noise, or even get rid of them altogether. Your Mac could be as silent as an iPhone or an iPad, and get as warm as one as well. No more boiling hot MacBook sitting on your lap, scalding your thighs.

Apple could also change their hardware design itself. Perhaps they’d be able to locate the chip behind the screen? They could make a MacBook that blurs the line between Mac and iPad. A convertible MacBook, using a detachable Smart Keyboard and Smart Trackpad cover, similar to what they do with the iPad. Switching to a cooler, more energy efficient processor could give Apple a lot more control over hardware design. Perhaps we’ll finally see some innovation from Apple again.

Focused Design

Switching to ARM-based Macs also could give Apple a lot more control over software and hardware synergy. Apple already tailors iOS to work with their processors, and they’ve started to do the same on the Mac. Inside every new MacBook with Touch ID and other new Macs, there’s a T2 chip. This handles security, processing your fingerprint and controlling the encrypted secure enclave. However, it also handles some of the load that is normally sent to a processor. It can handle your system management controllers, audio, storage, etc. It can handle encryption tasks. And because it was made specifically for this, it can perform these tasks faster than a CPU can, while using less power. It’s like how the graphics card in your machine handles graphics better than the CPU, because it was designed for it.

Apple could take this a step further. A chip for audio processing. Another for graphics. One for encrypting, writing, and reading data. Another for networking. By breaking down the demands of a processor into smaller parts, Apple can increase performance and battery life in a way that a typical CPU couldn’t.

Drawbacks of ARM

There are actually many drawbacks, which have me believing that I personally won’t have an ARM Mac for many years. My next Mac will be powered, once again, by Intel (though I wish Apple would use AMD processors instead). I’m absolutely sure that, as a developer, writer, and occasional gamer, I’ll be using Intel Macs for many years, regardless of whatever Apple does. So, here’s why ARM won’t be for me.

Lack of 3rd Party Software

I’ve got a few games in my Steam library that I can’t play now that I upgraded to Catalina. Some of the apps were updated, Superhot works again, but some just haven’t been. They likely never will be updated. If Valve can’t give us a third game in any of their series, they certainly won’t update Portal 2 anytime soon.

This was just with a move from 32-bit to 64-bit. In the case of most apps, it really is as easy as recompiling the app with a newer version of Xcode. Imagine if these app and game developers had to support not only Windows, macOS (Intel), and macOS (ARM). They’re already stretched to their limits. Most developers won’t keep up, and it’ll be years before ARM Macs get the same software as their Intel siblings. Plus, since the ARM Macs will be the cheaper models, developers will have less incentive to make software for them. A person who doesn’t want to spend much money on a computer isn’t going to make up for it by spending more money on software. A person with a less powerful Mac isn’t going to be buying the latest games.

There’s a chance that Apple could try to emulate the x64 instruction set on ARM Macs, much in the way early versions of the Intel Macs emulated a PowerPC processor so old apps could continue to work. However, this would be like pushing a car with an electric skateboard. Could you do it? Maybe? Would it be worth it? Absolutely not. It’s likely the platform would never be able to keep up with the larger instruction set processors that Intel and AMD make. Machines can really only emulate less powerful hardware without significant performance impacts. Unless Apple made some large improvements to their next chips, I have a hard time believing this is possible.

Competition Catching Up

 

This wouldn’t be the first time Apple’s Macs ran on their own hardware. Back before 2006, Macs ran on PowerPC processors. For years, they outperformed offerings from Intel, AMD, and others. But the competition caught up and left PowerPC processors in the dust. What happens if the competition catches up again? Apple will have invested in a new platform for nothing, having wasted time, engineering effort, and consumer’s money. It would be another chip-based failure for Apple. For this reason alone, many techies who still remember the PowerPC processor days will be reluctant to check out Apple’s new ARM based Macs.

The ARM Mac Cometh?

My list of negatives above likely sounds quite damning. Looking at that, you’d be silly to think Apple would bring an ARM-based Mac to market. But I only took a few hours to write this up. A team of Apple engineers could have spent the past few years working on this. There is a chance they came up with a solution that will make the rewards outweigh the costs. Then we’d have faster Macs that use less power. They’d be lighter, thinner, and quieter. We’d even see new Mac designs. So perhaps the ARM Mac won’t be perfect. But it’ll certainly have some great uses. Apple has certainly made Macs with an ARM processor internally. Will they ever release them? According to Ming-Chi Kuo and Intel, yes, and we’ll see them within the next two years.

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Sources:

• Lucian Armasu, Tom’s Hardware
• William Gallagher, AppleInsider
• Malcolm Owen, AppleInsider
• Michael Potuck, 9to5Mac