Reliable Analyst Claims New Keyboards Coming to MacBook Lineup

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There’s a sort of Apple product buyer’s remorse. You buy something and then a year later, something better comes along. That may be the feeling of people who bought a MacBook Pro this summer after Apple updated their specs. As it turns out, they may have a much bigger update in store for the MacBook Pro lineup this fall.

Apple did this to me last year with the release of a MacBook Pro with powerful AMD graphics after updating the 2018 MacBook Pro model in the summer. History repeats. Now it seems Apple will deliver a large update in the fall to their freshly updated MacBook Pro lineup.

Ming Chi Kuo is one of the most respected Apple analysts in the world. He looks at Apple’s supply chain to make predictions about their future products. By looking at the components Apple’s ordering, you can gain insight on the products they’re making and loose estimates on timeframes. He has predicted a new 16-inch MacBook Pro for release this year. While it’ll be faster, have a huge retina display that removes most of the MacBook’s bezel, the most exciting feature might be the removal of the bane of MacBook Pro owners: the butterfly keyboard switch. Apple may switch back to the more reliable scissor switch mechanism that made their previous MacBooks reliable and feel better to type on. Apple’s keyboards have gotten worse with every generation, something I mentioned in my review of the 2018 MacBook Pro. Could they finally reverse this trend?

This shouldn’t be a big deal, but it is. What else will the 16-inch MacBook Pro come with?

16-inch MacBook Pro

Kuo predicts that the 16″ MacBook Pro will come out this fall. It’ll feature a scissor switch keyboard, edge-to-edge display, and a whopping $3,000 starting price. It will be to the MacBook Pro lineup with the Mac Pro is to the iMac, or the iPhone X was to the iPhone 8. Apple may use the model to justify increasing the price of the MacBook Pro lineup substantially. This would, again, fall in line with their iPhone X plan. The iPhone X introduced features that Android devices have had for years, which sell at half the price of Apple’s phone. PC laptops, too, have featured edge-to-edge displays for years now. Apple’s playing catch-up, and overcharging for their tardiness.

Scissor Switch vs Butterfly Switch

There are many issues with the butterfly mechanism Apple designed for the MacBook keyboards. First, because key travel is so short, the keys can be held up my incredibly small pieces of dust. This dust or dirt can make the switch inoperable. A larger gap would allow this dust to pass through. Secondly, that trapped debris can damage the switch itself. So pressing on a stuck key could break the mechanism.

The butterfly mechanism also is not a modified rubber dome mechanism. Rubber dome keyboards work by keeping a capacitive layer off the board using a rubber dome. The key presses down on this dome, which causes it to make contact with the board. This is a mostly reliable switch pattern, and standard scissor switch mechanisms use this. The butterfly keyboard instead depresses a metal dome, which can allow debris into the keyboard itself. Apple has tried to fix this with rubber between the key and mechanism, but it still is not a perfect seal.

Reliability of Rumors

Ming Chi Kuo has been talking about the upcoming 16-inch for most of the year. It was often tied to his reports of a 32-inch “6K” pro monitor. We saw that predicted monitor during Apple’s last keynote, when they announced the Pro Display XDR. Just as he was able to predict that accurately by looking at the supply chain, so too was he able to predict the 16-inch MacBook Pro.

Plus, it just makes sense. Apple has been shrinking bezels across the board. The iPad Pro has the slimmest bezels ever. The iPhone now comes in three sizes with bezels so small there’s no home button. Of course Apple would be interested in reducing the bezel on the MacBook Pro. A smaller bezel alone could account for the full inch.

As for the key switches? The butterfly switches have given Apple nothing but trouble. The fact is, even with four generations of improvements, individual keys can permanently break from dust, requiring the replacement of the entire top half of your computer. Apple covers the repairs, but they’re expensive. Apple loses money with every computer they sell with this keyboard. They will absolutely replace it with a better model in the future. The best option would be to return to the scissor switch mechanism, which served them reliably for over a decade.

Therefore, I rate both of these rumors as highly likely. According to Kuo’s prediction, the 16-inch MacBook Pro will come out in fall of 2019, with all of the 2020 MacBooks following suit by replacing the butterfly switch with a scissor switch.

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Sources:

• Zac Hall, 9to5Mac
• Oliver Haslam, Redmond Pie
• Joseph Keller, iMore
• Chance Miller, 9to5Mac
• Joe Rossignol, MacRumors
• Mike Wuerthele, AppleInisder